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10 мая 2019

A lecture by Dmitry Koshelev.

Russian wikipedian Dmitry Koshelev has presented his concept of the world history based on the theory of archetypes by Carol S. Pearson. Two lectures called «Are the new Dark Ages possible?» took place on April, 4 in Tyumen and on April, 29 in Moscow. Both of them were held at the venues called «Boiling point», operated by Agency of Strategic Initiatives (Russia).

According to the author, the first man who used the archetypes concept to explain and predict historical events was the Swiss psychiatrist Carl Gustav Jung. In the article «Wotan», written in 1936, Jung suggested that Nazism was a manifestation of the influence of god Odin archetype to the German people. As long as Odin is the German god of war, the founder of analytical psychology has been able to predict World War II without being an expert in politics or futurology.

The concept of Jungian archetypes turned out to be very popular in differential psychology; it served for creating the world popular MBTI career counseling test, and for the socionics, which is no less popular in Russia. However, in his historiosophical concept Koshelev has used a model of 12 archetypes, which works in his own project called «Fortunengineering», dedicated to career counseling. The model was created in 1991 by the American philologist Carol S. Pearson, its foundation was not only due to works by Jung, but also the archetypal psychology of James Hillman and the doctrine of the hero’s journey by Joseph Campbell.

According to 12 Pearson's archetypes, the wikipedian has divided the world history into consecutive eras:

  1. Age of Innocent (66364 AD) — period when many famous religious figures appeared (Jesus Christ, Basilides, Mani, etc.);
  2. Age of Orphan (313536) — period of the fall of the Roman Empire, the Sixteen Kingdoms in China, the extreme weather events of 535-536 years, Mazdakism (the first version of communism in the history);
  3. Age of Warrior (451778) — period of legendary warriors. Such as Siegfried, Dietrich von Bern or Roland;
  4. Age of Caregiver (7681054) — period of several «revivals» at once (Carolingian Renaissance, Ottonian Renaissance, Islamic Golden Age);
  5. Age of Seeker (10001276) — period of the Norse colonization of North America, the Crusades, and occurrence of the founders of modern science (scholastics);
  6. Age of Lover (11351574) — period of Gothic art, courtly love literature, the Dolce Stil Novo (love lyrics of Dante and Petrarch);
  7. Age of Destroyer (13151526) — crisis of Late Middle Ages, Early Renaissance;
  8. Age of Creator (14961669) — High Renaissance and Northern Renaissance. The time of activity of many symbolic figures of the world culture (Leonardo da Vinci, Michelangelo, Raphael, Shakespeare);
  9. Age of Ruler (499168 BC, 15981789) — period of making of large transcontinental empires (the state of Alexander the Great, the Roman Republic, the Han dynasty, the Maurya Empire, the British Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Qing dynasty), absolutism and classicism;
  10. Age of Magician (30845 BC, 17751895) — period of creation of the Hellenistic religion and astrology, animal magnetism and spiritism, the revival of Hesychasm;
  11. Age of Sage (141 BC138 AD, 18591991) — Roman architectural revolution, creation of the Great Silk Road, invention of paper, modern technological revolution, the «welfare state», the modernity;
  12. Age of Jester (65 BC235 AD, since 1967) — apogee of gladiatorial combats in Ancient Rome, the richest athlete in the world history (Guy Appuleius Diocles), now – the postmodernity (the sexual revolution, gamification, heyday of show business and economic bubbles).
A lecture by Dmitry Koshelev.

According to Koshelev, if the concept proposed by him is correct, it will allow both short-term and long-term forecasting. In this way, it can be compared with the psychohistory that is mentioned in Isaac Asimov’s series of novels, the «Foundation».

As a long-term forecast, the speaker suggested that the tendency to relocate people to megalopolises will continue for another 100—150 years, and then we should wait for de-urbanization. He compares the future period with the return of the Age of Orphan, and the Anastasianism is considered to be the forerunners of it. A little earlier, the Age of Innocent will return, and the speaker justified the inevitability of it by such facts as the Islamic revival, New Age faith and new religious movements.

For today, entertainment is the most relevant and this is the characteristic feature of the archetype Jester, the lecturer called the ancient Greek god Dionysus the symbol of it. As the author said, in order to achieve maximum personal success these days, one need to behave like a pop star. He explains Donald Trump’s and Vladimir Zelensky’s success in presidential elections by these factors.

At the same time, as Koshelev wrote in his blog post at May 6 about the accident of the Aeroflot Flight 1492 in Sheremetyevo, for today's group dynamics:

«The scientific and technological achievements of the 20th century are too complicated to be repeated, and even maintain.»

The audience’s reaction to the presentation was very different. As the Tyumen online newspaper «Vsluh.ru» reported about the lecture on April, 4, some people expressed the view that usage of archetypes is impossible. At the same time, the editor-in-chief of the «Moskovskij Komsomolets in Tyumen» newspaper Vyacheslav Devyatkov was more supportive of the speaker:

«In fact, the question is open. But probably there is the connection between history and psychology. According to psychologists, mistakes in life, industrial disasters, recessions, terrorist incidents, mental health problems — these are all phenomena of the same type.»

Private trader Alexander Pytiev, who was present at the presentation in Moscow, told our correspondent that he

««…is always interested in theories that work on personal level, a level of an individual, and then move to analytic continuation. Firstly, to smaller organized groups, and later to more and more large communities. I liked the presentation, it has the exciting design. The format of the discussion wasn’t very successful, but it seems to become better in future.»

Private investor Stanislav Taktaev, who also participated in the Moscow presentation, shared the following opinion with our correspondent:

«In his speech, Dmitry Koshelev set an interesting predictive model relevant to what happened in the past and is happening in the world now. We will find out soon whether it really works. The question of archetypal approach, of course, is controversial, but the experience of its practical use, for example, in mass art allows us to think that it has real basis.»
 

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